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Natural population change rate by state

Utah has the highest estimate (7.1 per 1,000); West Virginia has the lowest (-4.5 per 1,000). Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program, Vintage 2025, 2025.

Data year: July 2024–July 2025Source released Jan. 27, 2026Last updated Oct. 23, 2026NST-EST2025-ALLDATA

50 ranked states; DC and Puerto Rico appear as reference rows where the source supplies them. Highest does not mean best.

Lowest state estimate -4.5 per 1,000 West Virginia
Highest state estimate 7.1 per 1,000 Utah
Utah: 7.1 per 1,000 Texas: 5.0 per 1,000 Alaska: 4.5 per 1,000 Colorado: 3.4 per 1,000 Idaho: 3.4 per 1,000 North Dakota: 3.3 per 1,000 Nebraska: 3.1 per 1,000 South Dakota: 2.8 per 1,000 California: 2.8 per 1,000 New Jersey: 2.7 per 1,000 Georgia: 2.5 per 1,000 Washington: 2.2 per 1,000 New York: 2.1 per 1,000 Minnesota: 2.1 per 1,000 Maryland: 1.8 per 1,000 Kansas: 1.7 per 1,000 Virginia: 1.6 per 1,000 Hawaii: 1.4 per 1,000 North Carolina: 1.4 per 1,000 Indiana: 1.2 per 1,000 Massachusetts: 1.2 per 1,000 Arizona: 1.0 per 1,000 Nevada: 0.9 per 1,000 Iowa: 0.9 per 1,000 Illinois: 0.9 per 1,000 Oklahoma: 0.6 per 1,000 Connecticut: 0.6 per 1,000 Louisiana: 0.6 per 1,000 Wyoming: 0.5 per 1,000 Tennessee: 0.5 per 1,000 Wisconsin: 0.2 per 1,000 South Carolina: 0.1 per 1,000 Missouri: 0.0 per 1,000 Kentucky: -0.0 per 1,000 Florida: -0.1 per 1,000 Ohio: -0.1 per 1,000 Montana: -0.1 per 1,000 Rhode Island: -0.3 per 1,000 Arkansas: -0.4 per 1,000 Alabama: -0.4 per 1,000 Michigan: -0.5 per 1,000 Delaware: -0.5 per 1,000 Pennsylvania: -0.8 per 1,000 Oregon: -0.9 per 1,000 Mississippi: -0.9 per 1,000 New Mexico: -0.9 per 1,000 New Hampshire: -1.5 per 1,000 Vermont: -2.7 per 1,000 Maine: -3.6 per 1,000 West Virginia: -4.5 per 1,000
Each dot is a state. The scale runs from the lowest to highest estimate; intervals are not shown here. Read about uncertainty.

State distribution and comparisons

The middle of the 50-state distribution is 0.7 per 1,000: the average of the 25th and 26th ordered state estimates. This treats each state equally, so it answers a different question from a population-weighted national estimate.

How does this compare with net domestic migration?

These states’ ranks change the most between natural population change rate and net domestic migration. These comparisons identify different questions worth investigating; a rank gap does not measure a causal effect or a statistical difference between unlike units.

StateNatural population change rateNet domestic migration
California2.8 per 1,000 · #9-229,077 · #50
Colorado3.4 per 1,000 · #4-12,100 · #43
Alaska4.5 per 1,000 · #3-4,525 · #40

Inspect these states, definitions and pairwise differences.

Values over time

All population history comes from Vintage 2025, including its revisions to earlier years. Ranks are recalculated among the same 50 states for each year.

The state-by-state view

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Ranked among 50 states; District of Columbia and Puerto Rico shown for reference. Rank 1 = highest value.

Natural population change rate · July 2024–July 2025 · People per 1,000 residents
RankState / jurisdictionValue90% margin of errorDifference from previous rank
1Utah7.1 per 1,000Not publishedNot a survey test
2Texas5.0 per 1,000Not publishedNot a survey test
3Alaska4.5 per 1,000Not publishedNot a survey test
4Colorado3.4 per 1,000Not publishedNot a survey test
5Idaho3.4 per 1,000Not publishedNot a survey test
6North Dakota3.3 per 1,000Not publishedNot a survey test
7Nebraska3.1 per 1,000Not publishedNot a survey test
8South Dakota2.8 per 1,000Not publishedNot a survey test
9California2.8 per 1,000Not publishedNot a survey test
10New Jersey2.7 per 1,000Not publishedNot a survey test
11Georgia2.5 per 1,000Not publishedNot a survey test
12Washington2.2 per 1,000Not publishedNot a survey test
13New York2.1 per 1,000Not publishedNot a survey test
14Minnesota2.1 per 1,000Not publishedNot a survey test
15Maryland1.8 per 1,000Not publishedNot a survey test
16Kansas1.7 per 1,000Not publishedNot a survey test
17Virginia1.6 per 1,000Not publishedNot a survey test
18Hawaii1.4 per 1,000Not publishedNot a survey test
19North Carolina1.4 per 1,000Not publishedNot a survey test
20Indiana1.2 per 1,000Not publishedNot a survey test
21Massachusetts1.2 per 1,000Not publishedNot a survey test
22Arizona1.0 per 1,000Not publishedNot a survey test
23Nevada0.9 per 1,000Not publishedNot a survey test
24Iowa0.9 per 1,000Not publishedNot a survey test
25Illinois0.9 per 1,000Not publishedNot a survey test
26Oklahoma0.6 per 1,000Not publishedNot a survey test
27Connecticut0.6 per 1,000Not publishedNot a survey test
28Louisiana0.6 per 1,000Not publishedNot a survey test
29Wyoming0.5 per 1,000Not publishedNot a survey test
30Tennessee0.5 per 1,000Not publishedNot a survey test
31Wisconsin0.2 per 1,000Not publishedNot a survey test
32South Carolina0.1 per 1,000Not publishedNot a survey test
33Missouri0.0 per 1,000Not publishedNot a survey test
34Kentucky-0.0 per 1,000Not publishedNot a survey test
35Florida-0.1 per 1,000Not publishedNot a survey test
36Ohio-0.1 per 1,000Not publishedNot a survey test
37Montana-0.1 per 1,000Not publishedNot a survey test
38Rhode Island-0.3 per 1,000Not publishedNot a survey test
39Arkansas-0.4 per 1,000Not publishedNot a survey test
40Alabama-0.4 per 1,000Not publishedNot a survey test
41Michigan-0.5 per 1,000Not publishedNot a survey test
42Delaware-0.5 per 1,000Not publishedNot a survey test
43Pennsylvania-0.8 per 1,000Not publishedNot a survey test
44Oregon-0.9 per 1,000Not publishedNot a survey test
45Mississippi-0.9 per 1,000Not publishedNot a survey test
46New Mexico-0.9 per 1,000Not publishedNot a survey test
47New Hampshire-1.5 per 1,000Not publishedNot a survey test
48Vermont-2.7 per 1,000Not publishedNot a survey test
49Maine-3.6 per 1,000Not publishedNot a survey test
50West Virginia-4.5 per 1,000Not publishedNot a survey test
Ref.District of ColumbiaNot ranked among states3.6 per 1,000Not publishedReference jurisdiction
Ref.Puerto RicoNot ranked among states-4.7 per 1,000Not publishedReference jurisdiction

50 states plus 2 reference rows.

What this ranking measures

Births minus deaths among residents during the annual estimate period. Published annual rate per 1,000 residents, dividing the component count by the average of the July 1 starting and ending populations, then multiplying by 1,000.

Net flows do not count every arrival. Components describe demographic accounting, not the reasons for migration or a causal policy effect. Residual adjustments reconcile components to total population change.

The size of the gap

The difference between the highest and lowest state estimates is 11.6 per 1,000. The U.S. benchmark is 1.5 per 1,000. It is not a simple average of the states.

17 states have point estimates above the U.S. benchmark and 33 below it. These counts do not establish statistical significance.

How much should you read into a rank?

The Census Bureau does not publish margins of error for population estimates. “Not published” means uncertainty is not quantified here, not that the estimates are exact.

Ranks use the full precision of the source file, so only truly equal values share a rank (1, 2, 2, 4).

Keep exploring

Read the ranking methodology.

Explore the same states in a side-by-side comparison, or combine this measure with others in the custom ranking tool.

Source and method

Producer
U.S. Census Bureau
Product / file
Population Estimates Program, Vintage 2025 · NST-EST2025-ALLDATA
Period
July 2024–July 2025
Unit
People per 1,000 residents
Calculation
Published Census component rate: 1,000 × component count / ((starting July 1 population + ending July 1 population) / 2). Rank = 1 + number of eligible jurisdictions with a higher value.
Coverage
The 50 states are ranked. Washington, D.C., can be added with the toggle above the table; Puerto Rico is shown for reference only, where the source covers it.
Cadence
Annual. Next annual vintage; date subject to Census release schedule.
Independence
Rank the States is independent. The agencies that produce the source data do not endorse these rankings.

Download, cite, or embed

Download the default full table (CSV) or use the download above for the table’s current filter and order. Data dictionary and source metadata

Updates and corrections

Last updated Oct. 23, 2026. Earlier editions stay available on the data page, and every change is listed in the update log. If a number or definition looks wrong, report an error with the state, value, and source you checked.

Related rankings

State distributions: each mark is one state, from lowest to highest. Each row uses its own scale.

01

Net domestic migration

July 2024–July 2025 · Census PEP

84.1K North Carolina · highest estimate 02

Net domestic migration rate

July 2024–July 2025 · Census PEP

12.0 per 1,000 South Carolina · highest estimate 03

Net international migration

July 2024–July 2025 · Census PEP

178.7K Florida · highest estimate

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