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Natural population change by state

Texas has the highest estimate (157,711); Pennsylvania has the lowest (-10,708). Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program, Vintage 2025, 2025.

Data year: July 2024–July 2025Source released Jan. 27, 2026Last updated Oct. 23, 2026NST-EST2025-ALLDATA

50 ranked states; DC and Puerto Rico appear as reference rows where the source supplies them. Highest does not mean best.

Lowest state estimate -10,708 Pennsylvania
Highest state estimate 157,711 Texas
Texas: 157,711 California: 109,715 New York: 42,815 Georgia: 28,631 New Jersey: 26,023 Utah: 24,961 Colorado: 20,608 Washington: 17,230 North Carolina: 15,129 Virginia: 13,817 Minnesota: 12,071 Maryland: 11,444 Illinois: 10,903 Indiana: 8,561 Massachusetts: 8,419 Arizona: 7,649 Idaho: 6,900 Nebraska: 6,136 Kansas: 4,951 Tennessee: 3,597 Alaska: 3,308 Nevada: 3,051 Iowa: 2,949 Louisiana: 2,774 North Dakota: 2,630 South Dakota: 2,605 Oklahoma: 2,559 Connecticut: 2,283 Hawaii: 2,024 Wisconsin: 1,161 South Carolina: 564 Wyoming: 295 Missouri: 177 Kentucky: -83 Montana: -90 Rhode Island: -304 Delaware: -554 Ohio: -729 Arkansas: -1,224 Florida: -1,333 Vermont: -1,769 New Mexico: -1,885 New Hampshire: -2,167 Alabama: -2,188 Mississippi: -2,607 Oregon: -3,764 Michigan: -4,998 Maine: -5,019 West Virginia: -7,887 Pennsylvania: -10,708
Each dot is a state. The scale runs from the lowest to highest estimate; intervals are not shown here. Read about uncertainty.

State distribution and comparisons

The middle of the 50-state distribution is 2,618: the average of the 25th and 26th ordered state estimates. This treats each state equally, so it answers a different question from a population-weighted national estimate.

How does this compare with net domestic migration?

These states’ ranks change the most between natural population change and net domestic migration. These comparisons identify different questions worth investigating; a rank gap does not measure a causal effect or a statistical difference between unlike units.

StateNatural population changeNet domestic migration
California109,715 · #2-229,077 · #50
New York42,815 · #3-137,586 · #49
New Jersey26,023 · #5-37,428 · #47

Inspect these states, definitions and pairwise differences.

Values over time

All population history comes from Vintage 2025, including its revisions to earlier years. Ranks are recalculated among the same 50 states for each year.

The state-by-state view

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Ranked among 50 states; District of Columbia and Puerto Rico shown for reference. Rank 1 = highest value.

Natural population change · July 2024–July 2025 · People
RankState / jurisdictionValue90% margin of errorDifference from previous rank
1Texas157,711Not publishedNot a survey test
2California109,715Not publishedNot a survey test
3New York42,815Not publishedNot a survey test
4Georgia28,631Not publishedNot a survey test
5New Jersey26,023Not publishedNot a survey test
6Utah24,961Not publishedNot a survey test
7Colorado20,608Not publishedNot a survey test
8Washington17,230Not publishedNot a survey test
9North Carolina15,129Not publishedNot a survey test
10Virginia13,817Not publishedNot a survey test
11Minnesota12,071Not publishedNot a survey test
12Maryland11,444Not publishedNot a survey test
13Illinois10,903Not publishedNot a survey test
14Indiana8,561Not publishedNot a survey test
15Massachusetts8,419Not publishedNot a survey test
16Arizona7,649Not publishedNot a survey test
17Idaho6,900Not publishedNot a survey test
18Nebraska6,136Not publishedNot a survey test
19Kansas4,951Not publishedNot a survey test
20Tennessee3,597Not publishedNot a survey test
21Alaska3,308Not publishedNot a survey test
22Nevada3,051Not publishedNot a survey test
23Iowa2,949Not publishedNot a survey test
24Louisiana2,774Not publishedNot a survey test
25North Dakota2,630Not publishedNot a survey test
26South Dakota2,605Not publishedNot a survey test
27Oklahoma2,559Not publishedNot a survey test
28Connecticut2,283Not publishedNot a survey test
29Hawaii2,024Not publishedNot a survey test
30Wisconsin1,161Not publishedNot a survey test
31South Carolina564Not publishedNot a survey test
32Wyoming295Not publishedNot a survey test
33Missouri177Not publishedNot a survey test
34Kentucky-83Not publishedNot a survey test
35Montana-90Not publishedNot a survey test
36Rhode Island-304Not publishedNot a survey test
37Delaware-554Not publishedNot a survey test
38Ohio-729Not publishedNot a survey test
39Arkansas-1,224Not publishedNot a survey test
40Florida-1,333Not publishedNot a survey test
41Vermont-1,769Not publishedNot a survey test
42New Mexico-1,885Not publishedNot a survey test
43New Hampshire-2,167Not publishedNot a survey test
44Alabama-2,188Not publishedNot a survey test
45Mississippi-2,607Not publishedNot a survey test
46Oregon-3,764Not publishedNot a survey test
47Michigan-4,998Not publishedNot a survey test
48Maine-5,019Not publishedNot a survey test
49West Virginia-7,887Not publishedNot a survey test
50Pennsylvania-10,708Not publishedNot a survey test
Ref.District of ColumbiaNot ranked among states2,516Not publishedReference jurisdiction
Ref.Puerto RicoNot ranked among states-14,907Not publishedReference jurisdiction

50 states plus 2 reference rows.

What this ranking measures

Births minus deaths among residents during the annual estimate period.

Net flows do not count every arrival. Components describe demographic accounting, not the reasons for migration or a causal policy effect. Residual adjustments reconcile components to total population change.

The size of the gap

The difference between the highest and lowest state estimates is 168,419. The U.S. total is 518,858.

How much should you read into a rank?

The Census Bureau does not publish margins of error for population estimates. “Not published” means uncertainty is not quantified here, not that the estimates are exact.

Ranks use the full precision of the source file, so only truly equal values share a rank (1, 2, 2, 4).

Keep exploring

Read the ranking methodology.

Explore the same states in a side-by-side comparison, or combine this measure with others in the custom ranking tool.

Source and method

Producer
U.S. Census Bureau
Product / file
Population Estimates Program, Vintage 2025 · NST-EST2025-ALLDATA
Period
July 2024–July 2025
Unit
People
Calculation
Published Census component; no transformation. Rank = 1 + number of eligible jurisdictions with a higher value.
Coverage
The 50 states are ranked. Washington, D.C., can be added with the toggle above the table; Puerto Rico is shown for reference only, where the source covers it.
Cadence
Annual. Next annual vintage; date subject to Census release schedule.
Independence
Rank the States is independent. The agencies that produce the source data do not endorse these rankings.

Download, cite, or embed

Download the default full table (CSV) or use the download above for the table’s current filter and order. Data dictionary and source metadata

Updates and corrections

Last updated Oct. 23, 2026. Earlier editions stay available on the data page, and every change is listed in the update log. If a number or definition looks wrong, report an error with the state, value, and source you checked.

Related rankings

State distributions: each mark is one state, from lowest to highest. Each row uses its own scale.

01

Net domestic migration

July 2024–July 2025 · Census PEP

84.1K North Carolina · highest estimate 02

Net domestic migration rate

July 2024–July 2025 · Census PEP

12.0 per 1,000 South Carolina · highest estimate 03

Net international migration

July 2024–July 2025 · Census PEP

178.7K Florida · highest estimate

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